Table 13. Logistic Regression Analysis of Supreme Court Decisions on First Amendment Cases, 1954-1988
Predictor		Before and After Brandenburg		Before Brandenburg Only		After Brandenburg Only
Attitudes of Justices		-1.91	***	-2.13	***	-2.31	***
		(0.27)		(0.48)		(0.42)
Brandenburg		-2.23	***
		(0.45)
Political Speech		-1.69	**			1.53	*
		(0.55)				(0.86)
DOCTRINE
	Likely and Imminent Risk of Lawless Action	2.22	***	-5.81		5.38
		(0.59)		(13.85)		(20.06)
	Not an Issue	0.32		0.50		6.49
		(0.36)		(0.43)		(20.01)
SETTING
	Public forum	0.16		-7.46		0.26
		(0.66)		(13.88)		(1.47)
	Semi-public forum	0.83		1.34		0.00
		(0.69)		(1.09)		(1.47)
	Not an Issue	0.42		0.37		0.98
		(0.74)		(1.23)		(1.25)
GOVERNMENT
	Federal	0.35		-8.22		2.82	***
		(0.46)		(13.84)		(1.08)
	State	-0.40		-8.99		5.45	***
		(0.44)		(13.85)		(1.94)
	School or University	-2.14	**	-17.91		[no cases]
		(1.07)		(27.64)
	No Government	0.70		1.15		[no cases]
		(0.66)		(0.83)
SPEAKER
	Communist	-1.68	***	-8.44		5.24	**
		(0.63)		(13.83)		(2.12)
	Racial Minority	-1.70	***	-8.85		3.23	*
		(0.50)		(13.80)		(1.75)
	Other	-0.73		-10.34		5.54	***
		(0.57)		(13.85)		(1.86)
Constant		2.60	**	16.10		-14.43
		(1.02)		(27.63)		(20.18)
Chi square		132.80	***	83.92	***	106.47	***
		(15 d.f.)		(13 d.f.)		(12 d.f.)
R-squared		0.24		0.25		0.49
% Correctly Predicted		76.01		75.78		83.64
% Reduction in Error		34.85		34.73		55.01
	N	421		256		165
Chow Test Chi Square				87.98***
				(13 d.f.)
*	significant at p<.10
**	significant at p<..05
***	significant at p<.01

Last Updated on 4/12/1998
By Bert Kritzer