Political Science 552 Syllabus

Political Science 552
Professor Herbert Kritzer

II, 2003-04
Syllabus

NOTE: This syllabus is subject to minor changes both before and during the semester.

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL DATA II

This course is an intermediate level statistics course concentrating on linear regression. The first six weeks will be devoted to bivariate regression (including matrix algebra); the balance of the semester covers multiple regression and other applications of the general linear model, including logistic regression, dummy variables, and causal models.

The class is scheduled to meet from 9-10:45 am Tuesday and Thursdays. Approximately 30 minutes of each session is intended as time for discussing problem set issues and math-related topics.

The prerequisite for the course is introductory statistics (e.g., Political Science 551). In addition students will need to have or obtain some familiarity with computer based data analysis using a statistical package like Stata, SPSS or SAS; students are strongly encouraged to also enroll in Political Science 553, a one credit course meeting Fridays 11-1 that will teach students how to use Stata. Students will be able access Stata (or SPSS) either from the machines in 313 North Hall or at the the Social Science Micro Lab (SSML) in the Social Sciences Building (3rd floor). All students will be set up with accounts on the Political Science Server.

The course requirements include a research design (7-10 pages), due March 25, a research paper (15-25 pages), midterm and final examinations, and six to eight problem sets.

The research paper may be done in conjunction with another course, but must be a piece of original research; it should in some way apply the material from this course. In format and substance, the paper should be modeled after a empirical research article in a general political science journal (e.g., APSR, JOP, AJPS, etc.) or a specialized journal (e.g., ISQ, ASQ, LSQ, LSR, etc.). The paper will be evaluated in terms of the overall research (25%), the statistical analysis (25%), the presentation of the research and analysis (25%), and writing (25%).

The following texts are required:

Kutner, Nachsheim, and Neter, Applied Linear Regression Models (4th edition)
xerox packet (available at Social Science Copy Center); also available via electronic reserves.

Many students find it helpful to have a second reading for the material. In the assignments below, I have included "alternative" readings from two other regression texts:

Hilton, Intermediate Politometrics
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, Regression

I have also included a number of required and "recommended" readings drawn from the the Sage "Quantitative Applications" series. Because these short monographs are excessively overpriced, I have put them on reserve at Helen C. White:

Aldrich & Nelson, Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models
Asher, Causal Modeling [2nd Edition]
Berry, Nonrecursive Causal Models
McDowall et al., Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Lastly, a number of the assignments include examples of published research that employs the techniques that we will be studying. These are all from journals that should be available in the Dean Room (Room 313, North Hall). As noted above, I will arrange to have them available through the electronic reserves system, and a reading packet will be available from the Social Science Copy Center.

WEEK	ASSIGNMENTS
Jan. 20	Introduction Review of Inferential Statistics, and Principles of Estimation Required reading: Kutner, Appendix A	Problem Set 1

Jan. 27	Bivariate Regression: The Model and Estimation Calculus Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 1 Daniel Patrick Moynihan, "North Dakota, Math Country," New York Times, February 3, 1992(?). Herbert M. Kritzer, "The Data Puzzle: The Nature of Interpretation in Quantitative Research," American Journal of Political Science 40 (February 1996), pp. 1-32. Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, 1-29, 152-162 Hilton, Ch. 2	Problem Set 2

Feb. 3	Bivariate Regression: Inference, Correlation and Analysis of Variance Logarithms Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 2 Eric A. Hanushek and John E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists, 60-65 Edward R. Tufte, "The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems," American Political Science Review 67 (1973), 540-554. Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, 29-74, 163-173 Hilton, Ch. 3

Feb. 10	Bivariate Regression: Diagnosing and Resolving Problems Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 3 "Probability Experts May Decide Vote in Pennsylvania," New York Times, April 11, 1994, p. A10. Orley Ashenfelter, "Report on Expected Absentee Ballots," (unpublished report, 1994). Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, 208-238 Recommended reading: Hilton, Ch. 4 (section on heteroscedasticity)	Problem Set 3

Feb. 17	Bivariate Regression: Diagnosing and Resolving Problems, continued Matrix Algebra Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 4 James P. McGregor, "Procrustes and the Regression Model: On the Misuse of the Regression Model," PS: Political Science & Politics 26 (December 1993), 801-804 Alternate reading: Hilton, Ch. 5

Feb. 24	Bivariate Regression: The Matrix Algebra Approach and Introduction to Multiple Regression Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 5-6 Alternate reading: Hilton, Ch. 6 Wonnacott & Wonnacott, pp. 75-103	Problem Set 4

Mar. 2	MIDTERM WEEK (sample exam)

Mar. 9	Multiple Regression Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 7 Edward R. Tufte, "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Elections," American Political Science Review 69 (1975), 812-826. Jonathan N. A. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael C. Herron and Henry E. Brady. "The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida." American Political Science Review, 95 (4): 793-810. 2001. Gary King, "How Not to Lie with Statistics: Avoiding Common Mistakes in Quantitative Political Science," American Journal of Political Science 30 (1986), 666-687. short articles on R², The Political Methodologist 3:2 (Fall 1990), 7-12. Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, pp. 179-193 Hilton, Ch. 7 Recommended reading (great at the beach, no kidding!): Andrew Abbott, Flatland	Problem Set 5

	RESEARCH DESIGN DUE MARCH 25

Mar. 23	Special Problems with Preditors: Dummy Variables, Nonlinear Predictors, and Interactions Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 8 C. Neal Tate and Panu Sittiwong, "Decision Making in the Canadian Supreme Court: Extending the Personal Attributes Model Across Nations," Journal of Politics 51 (November, 1989), pp. 900-916. Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, 104-119 Hilton, 186-215	Problem Set 6

Mar. 30	Dichotomous Dependent Variables (Logistic Regression [example]) and Other Nonnormal Problems (Poisson Regression ) Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 14 Eric A. Hanushek and John E. Jackson, Statistical Methods Social Scientists, 200-210 Jaleh Dashti-Gibson, Patricia Davis, and Benjamin Radcliff, "On the Determinants of the Success of Economic Sanctions: An Empirical Analysis," American Journal of Political Science 41 (April 1997), pp. 608-618. J. David Gopoian, "Images and Issues in the 1988 Presidential Election," Journal of Politics 55 (February 1993), pp. 151-166. Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, pp. 120-150 Recommended reading: Aldrich & Nelson, entire

Apr. 7	Causal Analysis Inference in Regression Required reading: Asher, Causal Modeling Alexander C. Tan, "The Impacts of Party Membership Sizes: A Cross-National Analysis," Journal of Politics 60 (1998): 188-198. Benjamin Page & Calvin Jones, "Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties, and the Vote," American Political Science Review 73 (December, 1979), pp. 1071-1089 Alternate reading: Wonnacott & Wonnacott, 194-205 Hilton, Chapter 10-12. Recommended reading: Berry, Nonrecursive Causal Models, entire Larry Bartels, "Instrumental and �Quasi-Instrumental' Variables," American Journal of Political Science 35 (1991): 777-800. Herbert M. Kritzer, "Problems in the Use of Two Stage Least Squares," Political Methodology 3: 71-93. Mark Schulman & Gerald Pomper, "Variability in Electoral Behavior: Longitudinal Perspectives From Causal American Journal of Political Science 14 (February, 1975), pp. 1-18.	Problem Set 7

Apr. 13	Multiple Regression: Selecting Predictors and Assessing Models Required reading: Kutner, Ch. 9 Sidney Verba, Nancy Burns, and Key Lehman Schlozman, "Knowing and Caring about Politics: Gender and Political Engagement," Journal of Politics 59 (November 1997), pp. 1051-1072. Michael W. Giles and Melanie A. Buckner, "David Duke and Black Threat: An Old Hypothesis Revisited," Journal of Politics 55 (August 1993), pp. 702-713. Alternate reading: Hilton, Ch. 8 Wonnacott & Wonnacott, Ch. 12,14

Apr. 20	Diagnostic Procedures in Multiple Regression (example) Required reading: Kutner, Chapt. 10	Problem Set 8

Apr. 27	Remedial Procedures in Multiple Regression (example1 example2) Required reading: Kutner, Chapt. 11 Herbert M. Kritzer et al., "Understanding the Costs of Litigation: The Case of the Hourly Fee Lawyer." American Bar Foundation Research Journal 1984 (Summer), pp. 559-604.

May 4	Special Problems of Time Series Data: Autocorrelation (example1, example2, example3) Required reading: Kutner, Chapt. 12 [example reading to be determined]	Problem Set 9

	Extra Topics (examples) Measurement and Reliability Suggested reading: Spector, Summated Rating Scale Construction (Sage) Factor Analysis and Principal Components Analysis Suggested reading: Kim & Mueller, Introduction to Factor Analysis (Sage) Kim & Mueller, Factor Analysis: Statistical Methods and Practical Issues (Sage) Paul Wahlbeck, James F. Spriggs, II, and Lee Sigelman, "Ghostwriters on the Court: A Stylistic Analysis of U.S. Supreme Court Opinion Drafts," American Political Research 30 (March 2002), 166-192.

Bert Kritzer, 608-263-2277, Kritzer@PoliSci.Wisc.Edu
Last modified, May4, 2004