The Candidates’ Side of the Story

Strategic Politicians and the Supply Side Theory

February 27, 2007

PS 426

The calculus of candidacy

lE ( a_i ) = P_i U_i - C_i

lUtility of running equals the probability of winning times the benefits of winning, minus the costs. What are the benefits of holding office? The costs? (direct costs and opportunity costs).

lImpact of probability of winning on the type of candidate who will run.

lProgressive ambition.

lExamples.

Strategic politicians and the economy

lJacobson/Kernell. Disjunction between the macro and micro-level findings on the impact of economic variables on congressional elections. There is a strong relationship at the macro level, but not at the micro level. Sort this out by focusing on the calculations of rational politicians and contributors.

lStrategic politicians and amateurs. The career structure and lateral entry.

Supply-side theory and racial representation

lImpact of the racial composition of the candidate pool in the Democratic primary.

–North Carolina case study: racial motivation of candidates: Willie Riddick and Don Smith.

–If the Dem. primary field is all African American candidates, “commonality” candidate wins. If a white candidate runs, “difference” candidate wins. Why?

lAlternative explanations for the nature of racial representation that emerges in the new black majority districts – region, % black, income.

Context of the supply side

lOpportunity Structure

–pattern of office holding in a given state or for a given office. The layering of local, state, and federal office.

–Open or relatively closed: weak party systems versus party machines.

lParty influence: party has a stake in trying to recruit the best candidates to run for office.

–Direct Recruitment.

–negative recruitment.