The Voters’ Side of the Story
PS 426
February 28 and March 4
Differences in
constituencies
lCentral tendencies and
heterogeneity. Members of Congress will
campaign differently depending on their district.
lFenno’s
concentric circles: personal, primary, reelection, and geographic. Members of Congress have to pay attention to
different parts of their constituency in different ways.
lImpact on representation – may
be very different depending on the MC’s campaigning style.
Turnout
lBasic patterns. Comparative evidence.
lInvestment theory of
voting–nobody would vote. Anything that
raises the benefits or lowers the cost should increase turnout. Voter registration, government employees,
differences between candidates, education and income, mobility. Close elections? Rational abstention.
lConsumption theory of
voting: The “D” term. People vote for various reasons.
lDoes low turnout matter? Ideology, attitudes toward the political
system, impact on the outcome (higher turnout better for challengers).
Figure -- Turnout in Presidential and Con-gressional Elections, 1896-2004
Figure -- Corrected voter turnout
Why people vote as they do
lIdeology – vote for candidate
closest to your ideological position (89% for Rs and
85% for Ds). Convergence of candidates
doesn’t happen that much. Project Vote
Smart survey.
lParty Identification. Importance for helping shape political
behavior and attitudes. Impact on
voting. Rise of independents.
lIssue voting. "Issue ownership" and the Democrats
and Republicans.
lPersonal characteristics and
voter contact. “Likes and dislikes.”
lDemographic factors. Race, gender, income and voting.
Figure -- The Decline in Party Identification, 1952-2004
Figure -- 2004 Presidential Vote by Race and Gender
Figure -- 2004 Presidential Vote by Income
Midterm loss for the President’s party
lSurge and decline and
“withdrawn coattails.”
lIdeological/partisan balancing
– not much evidence for this, but it does happen to some extent.
lPresidential coattails –
aggregate level and individual level contradiction. Broader policy significance – why does it
matter whether presidents have coattails in Congress or not?
Incumbency advantage
lHow to measure: success rate,
vanishing marginals, sophomore surge (about 7%), retirement
slump, “Slurge.” Recall
and recognition.
lFactors explaining incumbency
advantage.
–Compositional –
shift in the distribution of partisan strength in the electorate. More independents, fewer partisans. Independents more likely to vote for
incumbents. This counts for roughly 1/3
of the change.
–Behavioral –
changes in the behavior of House members that lead to more electoral success
(casework, money, contact with voters (going home every weekend), weak challengers,
campaign finance.
lIncrease in the volatility of
incumbent votes
Figure -- Turnover and Percent Defeated:
Figure -- Percent Defeated and Turnover: