Public Opinion as a Resource
How it is manipulated?
1. Samuel Kernell:
“going public” – taking your case to the people. Paradox:
presidents are going public at time it is least likely to work. Conditions that have to be
in place for going public to have an impact. Measures
of going public, why (technology), impact.
2. Bruce Miroff – the “presidential spectacle.” Not just speeches but “symbol-laden
events.” Going to war
as professional wrestling. The
personal side of the president is “magnified by spectacle.” Examples from Reagan, H.W.
Bush?
3. Press
conferences
Public Opinion as a Resource, cont.
Impact public opinion has on political outcomes: congressional roll call votes, vetoes,
midterm election results, presidential mandates.
Edwards argues there isn’t much of an effect that going
public has on public opinion. When
opinion does shift, it is the event, not the speech (9/11, invasion of
Press Conferences (per year)
Public Opinion as a Constraint
Determinants of public opinion based on two types of
expectations:
Institutional
– expectation about what the president is supposed to deliver: peace, prosperity, domestic tranquility,
integrity.
Electoral
– promises made during campaigns.
Variation
by type of issue: foreign and domestic.
Jacobson – variation in public opinion on Bush varies
dramatically by party.
Public Opinion
Dynamics of public opinion – general patterns for Clinton
and Bush (Edwards Chapter 4). Honeymoon
period, rally for Bush. Most presidents
see a decline in public support.
Specific dynamics – response to the impeachment attempt.
Difficulty in moving public opinion on domestic policy: failure of the town-hall meetings on Social
Security.
Presidential Approval Rating, Bush 43*
(Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll
2/01-10/07)