General election campaign

General election strategies:

            General – do campaigns matter?  Things that all candidates do:  concentrate on competitive states, move to the center, avoid mistakes (especially in the televised debates).

            The underdog – Mondale (1984), Dole (1996)

            Front-runner – Reagan (1984), Clinton (1996)

            Competitive – 1988 (Dukasis/Bush sr., 1992 (Clinton/Bush), 2000 (Gore/Bush), 2004 (Kerry/Bush).

 

The Electoral College

Founders’ intent – shield the election of the president from the popular vote.  Another less-talked about implication:  greatly advantaged the slave states because of the 3/5 compromise (compared to the influence they would have had with a direct popular vote).  Electors have never really exercised independent influence.

Basics – how it works.

 

Electoral college, cont.

Problems with the electoral college:

            -- Popular vote winner loses the presidency: 1824 (Jackson, JQ Adams, William Crawford, John Calhoun), 1876 (Samuel Tilden, only majority vote winner who lost, and Rutherford Hayes), 1888 (Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison), 2000 (Bush and Gore).

            -- small state bias.

            -- ignore non-competitive states.

            -- “faithless electors.”

 

Electoral college, cont.

Close calls:

            1968 – Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, and George Wallace. Came very close to having a deadlocked electoral college.

            The 2000 election and the “faithless elector.”  Nightmare scenario of a Florida deadlock.  No electoral college winner.

1896 vs. 2000 (not really related to the electoral college, but the mirror image is very interesting.)

 

Interpreting the 2000 election
Florida fallout and Bush v. Gore.

            Basic chronology of events

            Factors limiting Gore’s vote in Florida

                        Butterfly ballot

                        Voter purge

                        Other problems at the polls (race, punch-card ballots)

            Bush v. Gore

                        Majority opinion – 14th amendment, “manner directed” clause of Article 2 of the Constitution.

                        Dissents – impact on the Supreme Court.

The recount – Bush would have won under the scenarios asked for by Gore’s legal team  Gore would have won under several different standard in a state-wide recount.

 

Interpreting the 2004 election

National security and terrorism for Bush.

The “flip-flopper” charge against Kerry.

The Christian Right, the “moral values divide.”

Bush did better among women and Latinos in 2004.

Kerry did better than Gore among the 18-29 year-old voters.

Mobilizing the base – the “ground war.”  Get people to vote, but doesn’t shift positions.

Presidential Mandates – myth or reality?

 

Selecting presidents

Gap between campaigning and governing:  the types of skills needed to be successful in a campaign aren’t the same needed to govern.  Difference between Giuliani as mayor and as a candidate.  More interesting as mayor!

Clinton may be the exception here:  his presidency has been referred to as the “perpetual campaign.”

What are the skills needed to be successful at both?  Some overlap certainly.